So a few questions came in and while I have no problem giving an opinion on them, as always have your own plan…
What do you think the rate is? Doesn’t matter what I think the rate is, what matters is do I have a plan for whatever amount it happens to be. Again, more than happy to share my plan. I have a spreadsheet on the dinar with everything from $1 to $4 and the taxable amounts I expect, along with the net amount I expect to work with. Why nothing under a $1? Well, that amount doesn’t give me the options to be able to do my main plan and calls for a whole other option. What did I plan on? I planned on $1.12 for the Iraqi currency and .10-.50 for the Vietnamese currency. How much do you need to make your plan work? Only you can determine that.
What about the talk of a lop, do you believe they would do that? I’ve never really subscribed to the idea that would occur. Quite simply if you want to join the world stage and be a player at the big table, you don’t come with toilet paper currency that no one can use. Countries that normally use note counts that run into the 6 and 7 digits normally suffer from massive inflation. Two countries that don’t have that but have multi zeroed notes are Vietnam (3.30% in 2023) and Iraq (2% in 2023), compare that to the US’s average inflation for 2023 of 5.2% with a high of 6.5%. These two countries in particular have done a great job of keeping inflation down considering the circumstances of their currency. These are two completely economies. Vietnam is a high export economy that thrives on the lower labor rates they pay their people to produce goods and services, relying heavily on quantity. There has been tremendous pressure on the Vietnamese government to raise their currency rates which would probably damage their exports but would help make up for the shift by increasing the price received for goods. But this would also help them on purchasing power for raw materials for supplies of their production. Iraq is obviously an oil laden export economy but developing many other resources that will continue to grow their economy into a market space that will only continue to strengthen their GDP. Meanwhile, this will do amazing things for their purchasing power, allowing them to reach out into the world and buy the things they need for the construction of cities, people, services and economic growth.
When will it happen? Ah well there’s the million or more dollar question. Funny how every little thing that happens someone wants to say, “YES, this is what we’ve been waiting for!”, well at least until the next thing we were waiting to happen happens. The point here is we just don’t know. I have some very good people to talk to here in DC and on the Hill. I can confirm that a number of people recognize and believe there will be a change, but unlike some of the quacks that still claim their ‘best contacts’ have told them this weekend (again), there’s only a few things we really await seeing. First, opening and paying from an actual budget. Second, lower denominations. Third, the currency to be available freely and unsanctioned through our banking system. All the other things will fall into place. The whole WTO argument, Vietnam has been a member of the WTO since 2007 with a crappy currency, so that’s not absolutely necessary. Locking down security, Iraq is unsafe to travel to. Well let’s see there are four levels of travel conditions according the US State Department: Level 1, Exercise Normal Precautions; Level 2, Exercise Increased Caution; Level 3, Reconsider Travel; and Level 4, Do not travel. So where does Iraq and Vietnam compare on the list compared to other countries? Kuwait, Level 1; Bahrain, Level 2; Vietnam, Level 1; UAE, Level 2; UK, Level 2; Iraq, Level 4. Sounds bad, until you consider the US is considered a level 3, reconsider travel alert worldwide as well. Back to the question, personal thought on timing. If we don’t see anything by April, I’d write off the year until the last quarter. Is this from some secret intel source or material? Nope, just a gut thing. Doesn’t mean I don’t think it can’t happen before then, it can. But I’m not living on the edge of emotions hoping it’s happening tomorrow based on someone else’s walks like duck intel. Just watch for things happening. You’ll know it, the whole world will know it.
Keep the questions coming!
BWM