As always, you hope to be wrong about some things, but just looking at the statistics, I don’t see the rate that high.
As usual, the gurus have started throwing rates around in hopes of making you forget how times they’ve called it was absolutely happening this week. I’ve had numerous discussions about the dinar and the dong with friends, with some more optimistic about the dong than the dinar. I do have both and as I consider which is the better investment, I have fought with my common sense about the right choice. So let’s break this down and see what I mean. First, I got both with the idea that they would change in value to the positive, always thinking the dong would be a “bonus” currency if something happened. But too many gurus have spouted that the dong could be worth as much or even more than the dinar and this is where I think they are dead wrong. This is of course, just my opinion. Why? Let’s look at some facts:
Vietnam has had one of the bottom three currencies in value for several decades. It all started when the Thai currency decided to unpeg from the dollar and the asian market went shopping with a hole in the bag, it wasn’t good. Vietnam for all the ideas that we think that everything this made there, actually imports far more than they export. When we compare Vietnam to Iraq we see that Vietnam has a very stable political environment compared to Iraq, but is almost dead even in cost of living, land mass, and consumer popularity. Where Vietnam excels vs. Iraq is in roadways, population (twice as populated), unemployment rate, and life expectancy. And while many gurus will tout that Vietnam has as many resources as Iraq, they just don’t have the same economic collateral that Iraq has with it’s numerous oil fields. Vietnam has oil discoveries, but they are in the South China sea which have been disputed for a number of years. So when you read things like this:
MarkZ: On the dong we once again had new values show up again. Surprising rates on screens like $3.9003333 In my mind, calculator, and common sense, there’s no way I can justify the dong being anywhere over a dollar. When I did my original estimates, I was hoping for a nickel and would be thrilled with 3 cents. The other issue is that the basket of currencies for Asia, or the ACU, are the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Singapore dollar, and the Thai baht don’t have any real currencies that challenge the dollar in value. When you look at the SDR, the SDR is not a currency, but its value is based on a basket of five currencies—the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling you see how balance is preserved throughout the markets. How could multiple currencies suddenly changing their values over three dollars make any sense or allow for a balance of trade economically? While this would allow Vietnam huge buying power in their import market, it would kill a number of their exports as competition couldn’t keep up with the price/delivery model. Remember, I said I own VND, but I don’t have the faith in ROI as great as I do the IQD. In my portfolio of currencies, I consider the VND “bonus” currency. If something happens, great, if not, my cost per million was very low when I bought in.
And a bonus breakdown from the “your guru can’t put the pipe down” section:
11-30-2024 Bruce …our rate should be better at the redemption center…dinar and Dong and I know they’re gonna be a lot better on dinar especially because we know there’s a contract rate on Dinar that will be offered to us that is extremely high… Okay, not at the bank but at the redemption centers. Those days have long passed people, be safe and go where you feel safe. If your “center” is in an old strip mall where there’s usually a fireworks outlet this time of the year, yeah, I’m gonna say pass. But then, you’ll probably have the chance to meet your favorite guru as he hocks more deals on the side for extra income.
Stay strong out there.
BWM