From the questions that I’ve been getting, it seems there’s a lot of confusion going on with all the information being spread about so absurdly. I know we’ve become accustomed to the constant rhetoric of this had to happen, and that had to happen, so let’s look at some common sense ideals to what’s being proported.
The budget – “oh there’s a line item with the rate”. What is a budget anyway? It’s a line item spreadsheet of how much is being allowed to individual items to be spent for purchase, maintenance or salaries. So why would I need to know how many dinar equals a dollar in my budget? Is my budget in dollars or dinar? Well, if I’m in Iraq, it would seemingly be in dinar since it is my currency of value. The only time my need for a translation would be if I was negotiating a contract with an American company, in which case I would pay them an amount equal to ____ dollars. People always make a big deal when the budget talks come around, “they passed a budget!” Well whoop tee doo, they just don’t implement it. In 2023, they only opened 78% of their budget items. Guess what didn’t get left out, salaries of course. They can’t keep electricity on for a whole day, but the ministers got paid. So let’s lay to rest once and for all, the budget doesn’t matter, until they open and implement a full budget. As far as the rate goes, the CBI is in control of the rate, so anything paid in USD contracts only benefits Iraq to raise the value. The budget is approved for a certain amount BASED on their currency. If the currency value were to change, they would need to amend the numbers in the budget for the amounts to be paid out.
So with the current structure of information, here are the things we are concerned with: 1) the implementation of an full budget, 2) Iraq dinar being removed from restricted access (able to be converted at any bank vs. currency exchange), 3) the removal of UNAMI mission. (this has been extended until 12/2025, but they have requested a plan to be completed by 12/31/2024 to transition and liquidate the mission, 4) removal of export and import restrictions (on the table currently), 5) ongoing corruption and wrongful arrests (Iraq is currently 154th out of 180 countries in the 2023 corruption perception index).
Well that all sounds bad, so let’s look at the positives; 1) With all the assets Iraq has, the turnaround for the economy has made huge strides over the last few years, 2) the diversification of the economy is well underway (see the export/import lists vs Kuwait, 3) in April, the Department of State terminated the travel restrictions on Embassy and Consulate General, 4) They are to have a plan to end the UNAMI mission by the end of the year, 5) the U.S. only has 2500 troops there in a training and management situation so the “occupation” is over, 6) the third largest oil reserves in the world, 7) Iraq has a low inflation rate and the real GDP growth has grown exponentially over the last few years.
Where does that leave us? Personally, as I stated previously, I don’t expect another window until at least September. Does that mean things couldn’t change? Absolutely not. But I also think we’ll see some of these things change publically to show real change is taking place. So hang tight, watch for change and understand that people will continue to spout things to keep you online and pumping their visibility. So for heaven’s sake, quit listening to the pumpers telling you about rates on the screens, honestly, 15 years of rates and you’ve never seen one piece of solid evidence of these so-called backscreens. I mean, in today’s digital world, you don’t think someone, somewhere, would screenshot, or pop a pic of one of those numbers? C’mon, be real. Stop listening to the noise, and keep watching for real facts to come through.
BWM